Spill The Beans

crisi
The US is currently flying high on debt, military spending and stock market records. It is due for a fall. Coffee beans are much more down to earth with prices that reflect supply and demand. A bountiful crop usually results in lower prices while drought or insects or plant disease brings about higher prices because of the scarcity caused by one or more of these factors. Of course it is not all that...

Fed Up with Yellen

yellen
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting The latest FOMC meeting did not result in a change of interest rates but it is now clear that the Fed will insist on starting to reduce its swollen balance “soon”. It is also evident that the Fed will be able to do little in the event of a stock market downturn and a recession. There is the possibility that the Fed or other central banks could...

Slow Growth

crescita
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting It is a widely accepted postulate that excessive debt slows growth while lowering interest rates is a remedy applied to stimulate growth. The most recent US economic recovery has registered unusually slow growth in a low interest environment marked by a sharp increase in debt. The US national debt doubled in the course of the Obama administration...

Trend following: types of moving averages (part 2)

rendimento rischio indicator
A cura di Alpha Architect In my previous blog post we considered the general weighted moving average. In this post we aim to give an overview of some specific types of moving averages. Specifically, we cover “ordinary” moving averages and mention some examples of exotic moving averages. Ordinary Moving Averages These are the most common types of moving averages used to time the market.(1) Simple...

Trend following: the basics (part 1)

analisi tecnica telegramma
A cura di Alpha Architect Editor’s Note: Valeriy Zakamulin is one of the world’s experts on trend following and technical trading rules and will be providing a multi-part series on the subject. This is part one in the technical series. Enjoy. (here is an old piece we have on Valeriy’s research). One of the basic principles of technical analysis is that “prices move in trends.” Traders firmly...

Crash or No Crash?

federal reserve
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting Should the Fed continue with two more interest rate hikes in 2017, many commentators are of the opinion that the US will have a recession in 2018. The Fed`s intention to trim its balance sheet, if put into practice, will mean turmoil in the bond market as the Treasury will have to issue more bonds to cover the deficit of $670B with the national debt...

Price Discovery Lost

banche centrali
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting The definition of price discovery is “… a method of determining the price for a specific commodity or security through basic supply and demand factors related to the market” (www.investopedia.com). There are many other definitions, but they all make clear that price discovery means that supply and demand determine the price of a security. In...

Factor Investing: evidence based insights

rendimento rischio indicator
A cura di Wes Gray, AlphaArchitect I will be talking on the Factor Investing panel at the upcoming Evidence-Based Investing Conference in Dana Point, CA next Sunday –Tuesday. I am excited for the opportunity to chat, and figured I would highlight a few thoughts we have on the topic going into the event. First, what is “evidence based investing?” What does that even mean? If we read a index factsheet,...

O Inflation, Where Art Thou?

inflation deflation
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting The Fed has invoked 2% as the magic number for inflation but claims that its goals have not been reached even though the economy is doing well and, therefore, interest rate hikes are justified. Inflation statistics depend on where one looks for inflation and the weighting given to different components. It is obvious that statistics can be manipulated...

Dagong Europe, Commentary on Recent Bank Resolution Cases in Europe

dagong
Dagong Europe has published a commentary with the title ‘Recent Cases of EU Banking Resolution – Liquidation, One Rule Does Not Fit All’. The application of the Banking Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD) has been tested in practice in the last weeks with two very different cases of banks’ resolution-liquidation, one in Spain and another in Italy. On one hand the case in Spain of Banco...

Ignorant Central Bankers

banche centrali
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting Central bankers do not know what they are doing. The reason for this is that they are experimenting with the global economy. There has never been a similar situation in history to the one now unfolding because interest rates have never been so low or even negative and never have central banks resorted to QE as they have done in the last decade. They...

First take on Italian bank bail-out

banca banche bank
Di Anne Karina Asbjorn, Nomura It was announced Sunday that the Italian government has bailed out two more banks at a cost of up to €17bn. Intesa Sanpaolo will take over the “good” assets from Banca Popolare di Vicenza and Veneto Banca. The deal has been approved by the European Commission and consists of the government paying €5.2bn to Intesa, while providing guarantees of up to €12bn....

Bonds Away

Usa debt ceiling
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting This Newsletter has suggested in the past that investors avoid bonds, and it is likely that bonds will become even worse investments in the near future. The geniuses at central bank headquarters in the US, EU and Japan have created a situation that makes it extremely risky and unprofitable to put money in bonds. Not only have bond purchases by central...

Amazon compra Whole Foods e si aggiudica una grossa fetta di mercato nel mercato alimentare

amazon
by Erin Lash, Director of Consumer Sector Equity Research di Morningstar “On June 16, wide-moat Amazon announced its intentions to acquire narrow-moat Whole Foods Market in a $13.7 billion all-cash deal, which equates to $42 per share or around a 25 percent premium to our fair value estimate and the prior market close. The transaction is valued at a forward enterprise value/EBITDA multiple of 11...

Traders, beware!

volatilità montagne russe
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting The last few days have seen some slight losses on the part of the FAANG stocks, which the media appear to have greatly exaggerated as if it was something extraordinary that the market could not continue its upward trend and have Tesla quickly reach the $1,000.00 mark. The Fed confidently raised interest rates again, which resulted in a stronger dollar...