Le implicazioni sui mercati della recente volatilità

volatilità montagne russe
A cura di Dan Ivascyn e Scott Mather, CIO globale e CIO U.S. core strategies di PIMCO Volatility in perspective. The backdrop for the spike in volatility is more cyclical than secular in nature and unique to this business cycle. The main point to consider is that we are, finally, returning to normal levels of volatility. The U.S. economy is running close to capacity, and we are seeing a historically...

Gold, demand fell by 7% in 2017

Oro
By World Gold Council Gold demand rallied in the closing months of 2017, gaining 6% year-on-year in Q4 to reach 1,095.8 tonnes (t). However, overall demand for the full year fell by 7% to 4,071.7t, compared with 2016, according to the World Gold Council’s latest Gold Demand Trends report. Inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continued steadily throughout the year, totalling 202.8t, but lagged...

Dollar Up, Dollar Down

cash liquidita soldi dollari
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting In 1966 one US dollar was worth four Swiss francs.  In the last forty years the dollar has lost over 75% of its value against the franc. Forex traders could stand to gain from shorting the dollar as the Chinese intend to start their renminbi oil futures exchange in Shanghai in February. The petrodollar is going to have some competition thanks to...

Up and Up

orso toro wall street
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting The stock markets are still setting record highs, and the price of crude oil has gone over US$ 60 per barrel. Opinions are divided on whether the surge in oil prices will be sustained or fall back. There are various factors influencing the price like the OPEC agreement to cut back production and the question whether American shale oil production will...

Four reasons to hold gold in 2018

Oro
by World Gold Council As we enter 2018, we identify four key themes that we expect will drive global financial markets and influence gold’s performance. 1.A year of synchronised global economic growth Ten years after the financial crisis the world is returning to economic normality. Global growth increased in 2017 and the market expects the trend to continue in 2018. The European and US economies...

Dollar vs Euro

dollaro
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting US dollar weakness at the end of 2017 and the start of 2018 has made it clear that traders are going to have to be careful with dollar futures. On Friday, 12th January 2018, the euro was trading at 1.2202 against the US dollar with an increase of 1.41% for the day (+0.0170). That the dollar is weakening seems odd as the Fed has clearly given forward...

Italian banks, Npl and elections: main topics in early 2018

bank banca
A cura di Credit Suisse After the derating in December due to EBA guidelines uncertainties and the slightly increasing SREP requirements, Italian banks had a good start in 2018. Some good news on the NPL side and expectations of manageable outcome from the Italian election are driving Italian banks rerating. Europe and debt the big absents from the political debate so far – Italian politicians...

Italian Banking Sector, the Dagong’s Outlook

dagong
Dagong has published a commentary on Italian Banking Sector. Focus on asset quality: Asset quality has been the key challenge for Italian banks, due to a very large stock of non-performing loans (NPL) of EUR 324Bn as of 2Q17, that has not been managed as proactively as it has been the case in other EU countries (e.g. Spain and Ireland). A more active approach has been implemented only from the second...

Focus on fundamentals rather than “expert” forecasts

stock picking target azioni
A cura di John Reese, Validea Capital Management American philosopher and educator Nicholas Murray Butler once said, ” An expert is one who knows more and more about less and less until he knows absolutely everything about nothing.” His words, both wise and timeless, could apply to “expert” market forecasters. Butler (1862-1947) was president of both Columbia University and the Carnegie Endowment...

2017 and 2018, the differences

2017-2018
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting The end of the year is when one takes stock of the year that is ending and reckons what will happen in the coming year. This Newsletter was totally wrong about a stock market correction October as the market has reached new highs recently. Gold has not made a comeback and is trading under US$ 1,300.00 thanks to the BIS. The US dollar has remained...

US Dollar vs Gold vs Bitcoin

dollaro
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting 2018 is going to be a difficult year for Forex traders because of fluctuations in the value of the US dollar. The Fed is planning to raise interest rates three more times in the coming year besides QT. Higher interest rates in the US will result in a flow of capital towards higher-interest bearing US paper, particularly from the EU and Japan. This...

The Fed Does It Again

tassi-di-interesse-euro
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting The December FOMC meeting approved another rise in the basic overnight rate, which is now 1.25% – 1.50%. Three more rate hikes are planned for 2018, which would bring the base rate to 2.00% – 2.25%. Market observers have noted that in the past almost every time the Fed starts a round of interest rate hikes an economic downturn followed...

Interest Rates on the Rise

tassi-di-interesse-euro
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting The majority of market observers presently consider it a foregone conclusion that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 bps in December and arrive at a base rate of 1.25% to 1.50%. At the same time QT (Quantitative Tapering) is supposed to be progressing at US$ 10 billion monthly. More rate hikes are expected in 2018. As in the past such a Fed policy...

The Great Cryptocurrency Bubble

bitcoin bubble
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting Volatility has dipped under 10 in the stock market but reached much higher levels with Bitcoin. Since January 2017 the price has skyrocketed from just over US$1,000.00 to more than US$ 8,600.00. Daily transactions are over $2 billion.  Ethereum is trading at over $420 with a capitalization of 42 billion. There are now over 1,000 cryptocurrencies...

The global economic expansion has staying power

mondo mappa
Global Insight by IHS Markit from Chief Economist Nariman Behravesh and Sara Johnson, Executive Director, Global Economics Barring a shock, this expansion has staying power. The best global growth rate in seven years—3.2% in 2017—is based on firm foundations. Macroeconomic policies remain growth-supportive, notwithstanding a gradual “normalization” of monetary policy. Europe continues to surprise...