Reality Check

wall street
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting The Fed seems not to understand why there is so little inflation with the economy doing so well that a rate rise in December is probable and two or three more increases in 2018 are possible. There are various pundits that claim the US is doing well on many fronts with the unemployment percentage employed as an argument to prove that the Wall Street...

Electric cars, the time to sell shares is now

auto-elettrica
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting Tesla has been one of the greatest cash burners in history. The stock price is based on the assumption that electric motors in cars will soon replace internal combustion engines and that this change will mean huge revenues and profits for Mr Musk. Investors believe that their money should be in stocks that have the potential for future capital gains....

Crash or No Crash

tempesta
  A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting The US stock markets have been hitting new highs recently with the result that it seems as if there is hardly any risk involved in investing in US dollar equities. Even if the FAANGs account for most of the north-bound movement and large numbers of companies have seen their quotations headings southwards, Wall Street hype glorifies the advances...

VIX and Trend-Following, the Killer Combo?

volatilita vix
A cura di Andrew Miller, Alpha Architect Some things in life are naturally made for each other. Some examples include the following: Peanut Butter and Jelly Starsky & Hutch Value and Momentum So my ears perked up when the idea of combining VIX levels and Trend Following started making the rounds on finance twitter.  Like any geek, I was eager to start testing the idea, knowing ahead of time...

Net sales of worldwide investment funds remained strong in the second quarter of 2017

asset allocation
By Efama – European Fund and Asset Management Association Worldwide regulated open-ended fund assets decreased 2.0 percent to EUR 42.33 trillion in the second quarter of 2017.  Worldwide net cash flow to all funds amounted to EUR 574 billion, compared to EUR 611 billion in the first quarter of 2017. The information presented in this report was compiled by EFAMA and the Investment Company Institute...

Five reasons why Europe’s rebound looks resilient

bandiera tedesca germania
by Philip Dicken, Head of European equities at Columbia Threadneedle Investments The Eurozone is returning to health. In an era when unlikely political events have often upset the status quo, some viewed Europe’s equity markets as a risky place to invest. Yet today the clouds are lifting. If Angela Merkel wins the German election, there are five reasons why Europe’s recovery will be here to stay: Angela...

Debt and Hurricane Damage

Usa debt ceiling
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting The US national debt is now well over $20T thanks to a debt limit suspension approved by Congress that also includes $15.25B for hurricane relief. The FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency) had barely two days of funds left and was grappling with the damage caused by Hurricane Harvey and had to cope with the damage caused by Hurricane Irma. The...

Black October

orso wall street caduta listini borse
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting Market observers generally agree that US asset prices, namely, stocks, bonds and real estate, are expensive if not over-priced. This Newsletter has foreseen a strong correction if not a crash in the US stock market for the second-longest rally in history, probably in October 2017. Given the excessive indebtedness globally and the low-interest environment...

Reinsurance, when the going gets tough

dagong
“We consider the European reinsurers’ credit worthiness as high, but facing increasing headwinds,” says Linas Grigaliunas, Head of Insurance at Dagong Global. “The operating environment is challenging and likely to deteriorate further, mainly due to further increasing competition, low interest rate environment, high regulatory costs and mounting geopolitical uncertainty. The industry...

Risks from euro strength

euro dollaro sterlina
Barclays Economics Research The euro has appreciated by c.9% on a trade-weighted basis (NEER) over the past six months. The minutes of the July ECB meeting mentioned the “risks of exchange rate overshooting”. However, when President Draghi was asked at the July press conference whether the euro appreciation was a concern, he responded that “financing conditions remained broadly supportive to...

Spill The Beans

crisi
The US is currently flying high on debt, military spending and stock market records. It is due for a fall. Coffee beans are much more down to earth with prices that reflect supply and demand. A bountiful crop usually results in lower prices while drought or insects or plant disease brings about higher prices because of the scarcity caused by one or more of these factors. Of course it is not all that...

Fed Up with Yellen

yellen
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting The latest FOMC meeting did not result in a change of interest rates but it is now clear that the Fed will insist on starting to reduce its swollen balance “soon”. It is also evident that the Fed will be able to do little in the event of a stock market downturn and a recession. There is the possibility that the Fed or other central banks could...

Slow Growth

crescita
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting It is a widely accepted postulate that excessive debt slows growth while lowering interest rates is a remedy applied to stimulate growth. The most recent US economic recovery has registered unusually slow growth in a low interest environment marked by a sharp increase in debt. The US national debt doubled in the course of the Obama administration...

Trend following: types of moving averages (part 2)

rendimento rischio indicator
A cura di Alpha Architect In my previous blog post we considered the general weighted moving average. In this post we aim to give an overview of some specific types of moving averages. Specifically, we cover “ordinary” moving averages and mention some examples of exotic moving averages. Ordinary Moving Averages These are the most common types of moving averages used to time the market.(1) Simple...

Trend following: the basics (part 1)

analisi tecnica telegramma
A cura di Alpha Architect Editor’s Note: Valeriy Zakamulin is one of the world’s experts on trend following and technical trading rules and will be providing a multi-part series on the subject. This is part one in the technical series. Enjoy. (here is an old piece we have on Valeriy’s research). One of the basic principles of technical analysis is that “prices move in trends.” Traders firmly...