Interest Rates on the Rise

tassi-di-interesse-euro
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting The majority of market observers presently consider it a foregone conclusion that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 bps in December and arrive at a base rate of 1.25% to 1.50%. At the same time QT (Quantitative Tapering) is supposed to be progressing at US$ 10 billion monthly. More rate hikes are expected in 2018. As in the past such a Fed policy...

The Great Cryptocurrency Bubble

bitcoin bubble
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting Volatility has dipped under 10 in the stock market but reached much higher levels with Bitcoin. Since January 2017 the price has skyrocketed from just over US$1,000.00 to more than US$ 8,600.00. Daily transactions are over $2 billion.  Ethereum is trading at over $420 with a capitalization of 42 billion. There are now over 1,000 cryptocurrencies...

The global economic expansion has staying power

mondo mappa
Global Insight by IHS Markit from Chief Economist Nariman Behravesh and Sara Johnson, Executive Director, Global Economics Barring a shock, this expansion has staying power. The best global growth rate in seven years—3.2% in 2017—is based on firm foundations. Macroeconomic policies remain growth-supportive, notwithstanding a gradual “normalization” of monetary policy. Europe continues to surprise...

No Crash?

orso wall street caduta listini borse
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting October has come and gone, and the market rally goes on and on. Numerous observers and pundits have warned of a crash or strong correction, given the length of the rally and the fundamentals of the economy, which have been noted in earlier Newsletters. The FANGs and Microsoft seem not to be influenced by any disturbing geo-political news. The Fed...

Trick or Treat

recession
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting There has been no crash or even a 3% correction so far in October. Halloween will be on the last day in October, the 31st. So there remain two more days for this Newsletter`s prediction of a market downturn to be realized. So far Wall Street has marked new highs in a narrowing market as tech stocks account for most of the advances. With the exception...

O Inflation, Inflation, wherefore art thou Inflation?

inflation deflation
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting In a recent briefing Janet Yellen seems to have declared that she was surprised that inflation has been so low. Official statistics put inflation at 1.3% on an annual basis, far below the magical 2% that is supposed to be the be all and end all of Fed aspirations for northward heading prices. It is clear that statisticians can manipulate inflation...

I 10 punti principali emersi dal meeting di Fmi e World Bank

mondo soldi
In questo articolo scritto da Yacov Arnopolin, Gestore per i mercati emergenti, Lupin Rahman, Responsabile del Credito Sovrano dei Mercati Emergenti, e Vinicius Silva, Gestore per i mercati emergenti, gli esperti di PIMCO espongono i dieci punti chiave d’investimento, emersi dalle discussioni avvenute settimana scorsa, durante i meeting del Fondo Monetario Internazionale e della World Bank. Global...

Reality Check

wall street
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting The Fed seems not to understand why there is so little inflation with the economy doing so well that a rate rise in December is probable and two or three more increases in 2018 are possible. There are various pundits that claim the US is doing well on many fronts with the unemployment percentage employed as an argument to prove that the Wall Street...

Electric cars, the time to sell shares is now

auto-elettrica
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting Tesla has been one of the greatest cash burners in history. The stock price is based on the assumption that electric motors in cars will soon replace internal combustion engines and that this change will mean huge revenues and profits for Mr Musk. Investors believe that their money should be in stocks that have the potential for future capital gains....

Crash or No Crash

tempesta
  A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting The US stock markets have been hitting new highs recently with the result that it seems as if there is hardly any risk involved in investing in US dollar equities. Even if the FAANGs account for most of the north-bound movement and large numbers of companies have seen their quotations headings southwards, Wall Street hype glorifies the advances...

VIX and Trend-Following, the Killer Combo?

volatilita vix
A cura di Andrew Miller, Alpha Architect Some things in life are naturally made for each other. Some examples include the following: Peanut Butter and Jelly Starsky & Hutch Value and Momentum So my ears perked up when the idea of combining VIX levels and Trend Following started making the rounds on finance twitter.  Like any geek, I was eager to start testing the idea, knowing ahead of time...

Net sales of worldwide investment funds remained strong in the second quarter of 2017

asset allocation
By Efama – European Fund and Asset Management Association Worldwide regulated open-ended fund assets decreased 2.0 percent to EUR 42.33 trillion in the second quarter of 2017.  Worldwide net cash flow to all funds amounted to EUR 574 billion, compared to EUR 611 billion in the first quarter of 2017. The information presented in this report was compiled by EFAMA and the Investment Company Institute...

Five reasons why Europe’s rebound looks resilient

bandiera tedesca germania
by Philip Dicken, Head of European equities at Columbia Threadneedle Investments The Eurozone is returning to health. In an era when unlikely political events have often upset the status quo, some viewed Europe’s equity markets as a risky place to invest. Yet today the clouds are lifting. If Angela Merkel wins the German election, there are five reasons why Europe’s recovery will be here to stay: Angela...

Debt and Hurricane Damage

Usa debt ceiling
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting The US national debt is now well over $20T thanks to a debt limit suspension approved by Congress that also includes $15.25B for hurricane relief. The FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency) had barely two days of funds left and was grappling with the damage caused by Hurricane Harvey and had to cope with the damage caused by Hurricane Irma. The...

Black October

orso wall street caduta listini borse
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting Market observers generally agree that US asset prices, namely, stocks, bonds and real estate, are expensive if not over-priced. This Newsletter has foreseen a strong correction if not a crash in the US stock market for the second-longest rally in history, probably in October 2017. Given the excessive indebtedness globally and the low-interest environment...