First take on Italian bank bail-out

banca banche bank
Di Anne Karina Asbjorn, Nomura It was announced Sunday that the Italian government has bailed out two more banks at a cost of up to €17bn. Intesa Sanpaolo will take over the “good” assets from Banca Popolare di Vicenza and Veneto Banca. The deal has been approved by the European Commission and consists of the government paying €5.2bn to Intesa, while providing guarantees of up to €12bn....

Bonds Away

Usa debt ceiling
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting This Newsletter has suggested in the past that investors avoid bonds, and it is likely that bonds will become even worse investments in the near future. The geniuses at central bank headquarters in the US, EU and Japan have created a situation that makes it extremely risky and unprofitable to put money in bonds. Not only have bond purchases by central...

Amazon compra Whole Foods e si aggiudica una grossa fetta di mercato nel mercato alimentare

amazon
by Erin Lash, Director of Consumer Sector Equity Research di Morningstar “On June 16, wide-moat Amazon announced its intentions to acquire narrow-moat Whole Foods Market in a $13.7 billion all-cash deal, which equates to $42 per share or around a 25 percent premium to our fair value estimate and the prior market close. The transaction is valued at a forward enterprise value/EBITDA multiple of 11...

Traders, beware!

volatilità montagne russe
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting The last few days have seen some slight losses on the part of the FAANG stocks, which the media appear to have greatly exaggerated as if it was something extraordinary that the market could not continue its upward trend and have Tesla quickly reach the $1,000.00 mark. The Fed confidently raised interest rates again, which resulted in a stronger dollar...

The Fed Is To Blame

federal reserve
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting The Fed has murdered price discovery in the markets and has enlisted other central banks as henchmen. The SNB (Swiss National Bank) has bought millions of dollars worth of Apple stock, for example, and it remains to be seen what the central banks will do if the slight downturn of the last few days persists. They may all buy the dip. The Fed will most...

Moody’s: Italian companies’ credit quality to stay stable into 2018

moodys
Sluggish economic growth and weak consumer confidence will hamper the ability of Italian non-financial companies to boost their creditworthiness, resulting in broadly stable credit quality for the sector into 2018, says Moody’s Investors Service in a report published today. This report is part of a series (including Spain, Germany, the UK and Sweden) looking at the main issues affecting corporate...

Derivatives and Low Volatility

orso wall street caduta listini borse
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting The financial markets have become, to use David Stockman`s phrase, one huge gambling casino.  The size of the derivative market, which is now an impressive $639 trillion, dwarfs the trivial Forex daily turnover of only $5 trillion. What is disturbing is that volatility has recently hovered at 10 or even below except for a slight blip a few weeks...

The housing bubble is bubbling

bubble
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting One should learn from one`s mistakes, but Americans apparently do not. The great crisis of 2008 was brought on by the securitization of sub-prime housing mortgages. To a lesser degree the same mistake was made again with the securitization of sub-prime auto loans, and now the housing market is once more preparing the basis for another crisis. The...

China in the Red

borsa cina
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting Long-term planning is typically Chinese, and the great increase in indebtedness in China is not an accident. Western commentators are quite right to note that debt has recently increased tremendously in the land under Beijing`s control, but they seem to be missing the point. The PBoC wants the renminbi to become the leading global currency, and this...

The American Retail Armageddon

crisi
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting The crisis in the retail sector is ironically speeding up as the sector loses steam if one views the consumer-driven American economy as a train pulled by a 19th century locomotive. The number of store closings may be more than 8,000 in 2017 if the rate current in Q1 continues. Hundreds of mall anchor stores are on schedule to be closed if the train...

S&P p/e ratio 25,19X

s&p500
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting The current so-called recovery is in its 95th month and is the second-longest one on record, the longest being 118 months. The present S&P P/E ratio is very high and makes one think of 1929 and 2000. The record highs on Wall Street contrast strongly with the bad news from the automobile sector and the even worse situation in retail with the number...

Oil at $50

petrolio
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting This Newsletter has considered the oil market before and confirms that the oil price is presently behaving in accordance with the forecast made almost two and a half years ago. Oil price charts show that the price has been hovering at $50 (50 US dollars per barrel) for some time. The Saudi strategy of not reducing production in 2015 so as not to lose...

Car sales down

crisi mercato auto
A cura del Prof. Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting One key indicator of how a consumer-based economy is performing is car sales. which make up about 20% of all US consumer spending. New light vehicle sales fell 4.7% in April 2017, the fourth month in a row. Inventories are piling up and are now over 70 days. Car makers are planning on a longer than usual summer shutdown. Used car prices have...

The Dollar Crash

dollaro
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting President Donald Trump has had experience with bankruptcy. This will prove to be useful as his tax plan, if approved by Congress, will push the US ever closer to financial disaster. The 2016 US trade balance deficit was over 500B. The national debt is 19.9T with an ever-increasing budget deficit and a debt to GDP ratio of 105%. The retail sector situation...

Debt, Growth and Inflation

inflazione
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting Economists wax eloquent over the platitude that debt stifles growth. It is therefore not surprising that growth in the US has slowed since 2008 and Europe struggles to match pre-crisis results. Japan is a special case that has been stagnating for decades with debt reaching unreal levels. With companies deep in debt as a result of share buybacks with...