S&P p/e ratio 25,19X

s&p500
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting The current so-called recovery is in its 95th month and is the second-longest one on record, the longest being 118 months. The present S&P P/E ratio is very high and makes one think of 1929 and 2000. The record highs on Wall Street contrast strongly with the bad news from the automobile sector and the even worse situation in retail with the number...

Oil at $50

petrolio
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting This Newsletter has considered the oil market before and confirms that the oil price is presently behaving in accordance with the forecast made almost two and a half years ago. Oil price charts show that the price has been hovering at $50 (50 US dollars per barrel) for some time. The Saudi strategy of not reducing production in 2015 so as not to lose...

Car sales down

crisi mercato auto
A cura del Prof. Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting One key indicator of how a consumer-based economy is performing is car sales. which make up about 20% of all US consumer spending. New light vehicle sales fell 4.7% in April 2017, the fourth month in a row. Inventories are piling up and are now over 70 days. Car makers are planning on a longer than usual summer shutdown. Used car prices have...

The Dollar Crash

dollaro
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting President Donald Trump has had experience with bankruptcy. This will prove to be useful as his tax plan, if approved by Congress, will push the US ever closer to financial disaster. The 2016 US trade balance deficit was over 500B. The national debt is 19.9T with an ever-increasing budget deficit and a debt to GDP ratio of 105%. The retail sector situation...

Debt, Growth and Inflation

inflazione
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting Economists wax eloquent over the platitude that debt stifles growth. It is therefore not surprising that growth in the US has slowed since 2008 and Europe struggles to match pre-crisis results. Japan is a special case that has been stagnating for decades with debt reaching unreal levels. With companies deep in debt as a result of share buybacks with...

The Runaway Rally

tempesta
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting This Newsletter has already observed that the current rally is now the second longest in history and that equity prices are extraordinarily high with a P/E ratio of 25 or even more according to other calculations. The real economy does not justify Wall Street`s seductive optimism. The soft data is belied by the hard data. There are several factors...

China’s Currency Manipulation

borsa cina
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting During the American presidential election campaign, Donald Trump claimed that China had been manipulating its currency. After a meeting in April 2017 with Chinese General Secretary Xi Jinping, President Trump declared that China was not a currency manipulator. Assuming that Mr Trump is correct on both accounts, there should be evidence indicating...

Americans are to blame!

usa economia pil
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting The dotcom bubble of 2000 was primarily an American affair that cost a lot of people a lot of money while the crisis of 2008 had far-reaching international implications, which led to governments going deep into debt in order to save the banking system. Banks had foolishly bought billions of dollars of paper that was based on sub-prime mortgages wrapped...

Financial markets: this time is really different

tempesta rischio barometro risk
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting This Newsletter has repeatedly mentioned various aspects of the current global financial situation with reference to enormous sovereign debt, zero and negative interest rates, the Fed`s interest rate rise policy, inflated equity prices, market manipulation, the over-priced US dollar, the Chinese plan to have the renminbi compete with the US currency...

The Great Gold Price Scandal

Oro
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting Manipulation of the gold price has been going on for decades, and no one has gone to prison or been fined. Banks that tried to fix the silver price were found out and fined, but the BIS, central banks and their accomplices have carried on their illegal practices under the noses of the regulators with impunity. Price discovery in the gold market has...

Material Price Index ticks upwards on freight and lumber strength

commodity
Deni Koenhemsi, senior economist, IHS Markit The Materials Price Index (MPI) increased 0.2% last week after falling the previous two weeks. Last week’s slight increase was driven by freight and lumber, with each sub-index increasing 10.1% and 2.3%, respectively. A retreat in the US dollar also helped support commodity prices generally. Potential softwood lumber duties, as well as adverse weather...

L’outlook di Banca Imi su titoli e settori dopo le trimestrali

Trimestrali
A cura di Banca Imi Based on our 4Q16 forecasts, we calculated that, out of the 79 companies in our preview sample, 44% of results came in above expectations, 38% in line, and 18% below our forecasts. Overall, we judge the 4Q16 reporting season in Italy as in line with our expectations. In the Eurozone, the 4Q16 reporting season turned out better than in Italy, with about 54% earnings reports above...

Stocks or bonds?

stocks vs bonds
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting In the good old days investors could keep their portfolios balanced with 60% in bonds and 40% in stocks. Government bonds were practically risk free and produced reasonable gains while blue chip stocks were dependable dividend producers. Nowadays investors have difficult decisions to make because of the increased sovereign debt resulting from the...

Dagong’s 2017 Credit Outlook for the Global Banking Industry

dagong
Dagong Global Credit Rating Group released Dagong’s 2017 Credit Outlook for the Global Banking Industry, forecasting the trend of credit risks in 2017 global banking industry under the environment of ultralow interest rate and the expansion of shadow banks. In 2017, the rise of global financial uncertainties will cause the banking industry’s overall credit risk to face an upward trend, as the...

How High is High?

bubble
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting Since the last Newsletter stock quotations have risen yet further with the DJIA hovering under the 21,000 mark with a P/E ratio of 21.3 while the S&P 500 is still around 2,370 with a P/E ratio of 26.5.The markets are waiting for the FOMC meeting of 15th March 2017 (the Ides of March, an ominous date) while the next rate rise of 25 bps is practically...