Tariffs and Trade Deficits

dollaro
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting The US trade deficit in February 2018 increased to US$ 57.6 billion according to the Commerce Department.  The US trade gap in 2017 was US$ 566 billion. Economic logic would entail a tail spin for the US dollar, which has not taken place thanks to the dominant position of the greenback as the world`s primary reserve currency. Several market observers...

The return of volatility on the financial markets

volatilità montagne russe
A cura di Banque de Luxemburg Investments Volatility has returned to the financial markets. Three subjects which are currently bothering the financial markets (apart from the declarations and decisions of the American president) merit exploring in greater detail: growth, inflation and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, as well as the repercussions that some of the potential scenarios could have...

About Usd/Cny

yuan renminbi
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting The opening of the Shanghai oil futures Exchange on 26th March 2018 has been commented on by various market observers. Some think that US dollar dominance in global finance will continue for a long time while others hail the beginning of the end of the petrodollar. It is clear that the US dollar is not going to be replaced immediately by the renminbi...

Volatility is back !

volatilità montagne russe
A cura di Prasaanna Jeyanandhan, Senior Analyst SYZ Asset Management After an extended period of calm and buoyant markets, February was a bit of a wake up call to investors as markets sold off and volatility surged to levels not seen since crisis times. This spike in volatility, coming during a so-called “Goldilocks” period of strong growth and modest inflation, caught many investors off-guard...

Pimco: “The Ide(a)s of March”

asset allocation
Joachim Fels, PIMCO Global Strategic Advisor Is President Trump about to start a major trade war? Will goldilocks give way to a more challenging late-cycle mix of slowing global growth and rising inflation? Is the untested Powell-Fed about to step up the pace of rate hikes? Could the neutral rate of interest r* be heading higher? Will Emerging Markets continue to shine? Are we now in a bear market...

Trump and US Avoid Bankruptcy

Usa debt ceiling
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting US President Donald Trump has experience with bankruptcy and finding financing to make a recovery. This will stand him in good stead as the financial situation of the federal government worsens. As the US dollar is the major global reserve currency, it is imperative for the US to avoid defaulting. The budget deficits foreseen for the next two or three...

The Perfect Debt Storm

Usa debt ceiling
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting Congress has voted to spend 300 billion more. Adding this to the projected budget deficit, the Treasury is going to have to find about one trillion more to finance expenses. With the debt already at 20.6 trillion (www.usdebtclock.org), FY 2018 does not look very promising. If the Fed continues with QT (quantitative tightening) and goes ahead with...

Le implicazioni sui mercati della recente volatilità

volatilità montagne russe
A cura di Dan Ivascyn e Scott Mather, CIO globale e CIO U.S. core strategies di PIMCO Volatility in perspective. The backdrop for the spike in volatility is more cyclical than secular in nature and unique to this business cycle. The main point to consider is that we are, finally, returning to normal levels of volatility. The U.S. economy is running close to capacity, and we are seeing a historically...

Gold, demand fell by 7% in 2017

Oro
By World Gold Council Gold demand rallied in the closing months of 2017, gaining 6% year-on-year in Q4 to reach 1,095.8 tonnes (t). However, overall demand for the full year fell by 7% to 4,071.7t, compared with 2016, according to the World Gold Council’s latest Gold Demand Trends report. Inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continued steadily throughout the year, totalling 202.8t, but lagged...

Dollar Up, Dollar Down

cash liquidita soldi dollari
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting In 1966 one US dollar was worth four Swiss francs.  In the last forty years the dollar has lost over 75% of its value against the franc. Forex traders could stand to gain from shorting the dollar as the Chinese intend to start their renminbi oil futures exchange in Shanghai in February. The petrodollar is going to have some competition thanks to...

Up and Up

orso toro wall street
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting The stock markets are still setting record highs, and the price of crude oil has gone over US$ 60 per barrel. Opinions are divided on whether the surge in oil prices will be sustained or fall back. There are various factors influencing the price like the OPEC agreement to cut back production and the question whether American shale oil production will...

Four reasons to hold gold in 2018

Oro
by World Gold Council As we enter 2018, we identify four key themes that we expect will drive global financial markets and influence gold’s performance. 1.A year of synchronised global economic growth Ten years after the financial crisis the world is returning to economic normality. Global growth increased in 2017 and the market expects the trend to continue in 2018. The European and US economies...

Dollar vs Euro

dollaro
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting US dollar weakness at the end of 2017 and the start of 2018 has made it clear that traders are going to have to be careful with dollar futures. On Friday, 12th January 2018, the euro was trading at 1.2202 against the US dollar with an increase of 1.41% for the day (+0.0170). That the dollar is weakening seems odd as the Fed has clearly given forward...

Italian banks, Npl and elections: main topics in early 2018

bank banca
A cura di Credit Suisse After the derating in December due to EBA guidelines uncertainties and the slightly increasing SREP requirements, Italian banks had a good start in 2018. Some good news on the NPL side and expectations of manageable outcome from the Italian election are driving Italian banks rerating. Europe and debt the big absents from the political debate so far – Italian politicians...

Italian Banking Sector, the Dagong’s Outlook

dagong
Dagong has published a commentary on Italian Banking Sector. Focus on asset quality: Asset quality has been the key challenge for Italian banks, due to a very large stock of non-performing loans (NPL) of EUR 324Bn as of 2Q17, that has not been managed as proactively as it has been the case in other EU countries (e.g. Spain and Ireland). A more active approach has been implemented only from the second...