Bear Market in Sight

A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting Recent market turmoil has been noted by investors, which is not surprising since a 20% fall in stock prices is hardly likely to go unnoticed. The recent bounce back registered Friday, the last day of November, may induce sanguine Wall Street addicts to think that the losses in November were only a hiccup along the steep road to Nirvana, where stock...

Disruption all’orizzonte per il sistema bancario europeo

bank banca
S&P Global Ratings ha pubblicato il proprio report sul comparto bancario europeo. Di seguito alcune evidenze: – Le banche europee hanno in gran parte ricostruito i loro bilanci e aumentato i loro capitali, ma la bassa redditività è ancora una delle loro principali debolezze. – È improbabile che tassi di interesse più elevati siano di grande aiuto, mentre i rischi macroeconomici...

Piling up debt

dollaro
A cura di Walter Snyder, WWS Swiss Financial Consulting SA         This Newsletter has often mentioned the problem of debt, especially in connection with the US, where the federal debt alone is now over $21.7 trillion, which is 105% of GDP. The situation is not much better in many Emerging Market countries as the table below clearly shows, particularly for corporations. It has been shown that...

The Future Of The Petrodollar

petrolio dollaro
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting The Chinese will be responsible for a downward turn as the PBoC, People’s Bank of China, will pursue the goal of making the Chinese yuan the most important global reserve currency. The institution of the Shanghai crude oil futures market is one aspect of this strategy intended to have the petroyuan compete with the petrodollar. Analysts have...

The crash is coming

crisi
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting More and more market observers voice the opinion that caution should be exercised in the present financial environment, and this is due to various factors. Last week`s bond sell-off in the US made investors aware of the narrowing gap between yields from stocks and yields from bonds. With ten-year Treasury notes producing a yield of 3.27% the yield...

More On Debt

bond obbligazione treasury
A cura di Walter Snyder This Newsletter has often examined the situation of the US in relation to its burden of debt. The increase in the debt is ongoing. The US Debt Clock (www.usdebtclock.org) currently registers $ 21.509 trillion for the US national debt and rising. This figure taken by itself is already enormous and is larger than GDP (Gross Domestic Product), which at present stands at $20.445...

Trade Wars

A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting There have been numerous reports on the ongoing trade war between the US and China. So far the markets in the US seem to have taken the goings on in their stride while in China the Shanghai index has fallen 20%. The Chinese national plunge protection team has already been at work. One has to ask the question whether Chinese investors see things that...

The Benefits of the Other Side

A cura di Jack Forehand, Validea Polarization has become the new thing. Everyone seems to have such strong opinions one way or the other on every issue that they just can’t see how the opposite opinion to their own is even possible. They can’t see how a rational human being could think differently than them. Obviously, the biggest place we currently see this is in politics. More and more political...

Emerging Market Debt

A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting Emerging Market (EM) debt is a serious problem for the global economy. The situation becomes more complicated when a country has foreign debt denominated in US dollars. Even if the US dollar remains constant in Forex markets globally, the local company and/or government can find itself in difficulty if the local currency falls against the US dollar....

This Time There Are Differences

A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting The S&P has topped January highs. Investors who bought into the dip have done well. Now that the present recovery is the longest on record and the Fed is still set on raising interest rates, many observers reckon that the market could go even higher, as high as 3,000, before the reset begins. There is reason to think that all the share buyback...

The US Dollar Again

dollaro sterlina
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting The US dollar is the main global reserve currency and most international transactions employ US dollars as the means of exchange. The US has exploited its dominant position in global finance to amass huge debts that are going to impact how Americans live and how international commerce is carried on. Americans live well and have continued to do so...

ESMA renew prohibition on binary options for a further three months

The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) has agreed to renew the prohibition of the marketing, distribution or sale of binary options to retail clients, in effect since 2 July, from 2 October 2018 for a further three-month period. ESMA has also agreed on the exclusion of a limited number of products from the scope of the measure. ESMA has carefully considered the need to extend the intervention...

Capitalism works, don’t change it

A cura di First Trust “Wealth creation” versus “the redistribution of wealth” is an age-old political/economic battle. And once again, Senator Elizabeth Warren – among others – has capitalism in the crosshairs. Adam Smith defended capitalism in 1776. Karl Marx attacked it in the 1800s. William Jennings Bryant attacked it; Grover Cleveland defended it. FDR attacked it; Ronald Reagan...

Emerging Markets vs Wall Street

A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting The recent and not so recent turmoil in Emerging Markets (EM) can be considered as normal if one is willing to see the United States as an “exceptional” country. The currencies of Cuba and Venezuela have been languishing along with the Russian ruble that has been under attack for years. The Brazilian real and Argentine peso have done poorly not...

Oi Oi Oil

petrolio
A cura di Walter Snyder, Swiss Financial Consulting Despite all the hyperbole concerning alternative sources of energy, oil still remains the most important commodity in the global economy. It is therefore of extreme importance that the flow of oil continue without interruption so that business goes on as usual. The unilateral US imposition of tariffs and restrictions on Iranian oil is going to have...